Professor Peter Rogers of Harvard University Department of Engineering and Applied Sciences provides an overview of the transportation and air pollution problems in Delhi and Beijing in a study conducted with Sumeeta Srinivasan and Karolin Kokaz. Rogers notes that the goals of the analysis are four-fold: to put emission standards in perspective in relation to other issues, to show the relative impact on health, to show the need to integrate land use and traffic planning in environmental management, and to show the usefulness of Decision Support models in situations where poor data exists.
The researchers used GIS for some analytical work, but much is based on existing data. Vehicles and population is expanding rapidly in both cities and both governments are content to allow this rapid expansion. Automobile emissions are the most rapidly growing source of urban air pollution in both places. In showing statistics on the amount of air pollution emissions from mobile sources, Rogers notes the data is suspect but the percentages are quite high. In comparison to other large global cities, Beijing and Delhi has far fewer vehicles, but higher percentages of use as opposed to use of light rail and subways.
In focusing on Delhi, the researchers, with GIS tools, began to develop a database to better understand land use, transportation and air quality. They looked at changes in land use over the years which reveals rapid urbanization and expansion in recent decades. Rogers estimates that population has expanded from three million to 13 million in the last twenty five years. WHO estimates that Delhi is the fourth most polluted city in the world for particulate matter with high rates of inhabitants suffering respiratory diseases. Rogers and colleagues looked at existing information on the city s infrastructure and traffic corridors. Noting that most traffic fatalities are pedestrians, double that of any other Indian city. Rogers states that were he living in Delhi, he would ride in three wheelers, motorcycles or walk. The researchers looked at the pollution data and parts of the city where there was significant exposure, and made comparisons with health data by geographic district in the city. Though there is much road space in the city, traffic planning is poor, so there is excessive congestion. Most vehicles are old, fifteen or older, and with high emissions rates. The researchers also examined the "value of time" with fuel costs and health costs including mortality and projected the time lost to congestion increases dramatically by 2020. This also results in higher energy use and more fatalities due to air quality conditions. Rogers and team estimate billions of dollars in savings per year by reducing congestion and easing the flow of traffic patterns.
Beijing has five ring roads with fourteen satellite cities. 12 million inhabitants own 9 million cars. Roger characterizes Beijing as another Los Angeles in the making with dramatic vehicle growth. Even with regulations now being implemented, Roger s chart show marked growth in emission levels. He attributes this to the growing number of vehicles and vehicle age. Again the researchers looked at value of time variables (i.e., traffic speed), along with fuel and health costs. While motorcycles account for most of Delhi s vehicles, they only account for a quarter of Beijing s. Population is projected to increase to 23 million, so appropriate transportation management must be implemented there now.
The researchers, in their analysis, used GIS mapping to help link urban air transport and diffusion models, map exposure and health impacts, and aid trip generation analysis. Simulation models can test assumptions about future land use and environmental regulatory policies and integrate GIS analysis. In conclusion, Rogers notes the goal is to move people not vehicles, but doesn t advocate any specific mode of transportation, but rather it is likely a mix of modes should be sought. For a more efficient transportation system, there will be a need to use low energy, low emissions, and low road space consumption per passenger modes. Public transportation and light rail offer the best opportunities. Vehicle emission standards, fuel upgrading alone are not enough, because even if reforms are put in place, emissions will grow because of the elderly vehicle fleet and massive influx of new cars. Road areas account for 6.1 percent of land area in Beijing and 23 percent in Delhi. Enhance inspection maintenance and early vehicle retirement, employer transit passes are good options to follow. Road fees and increased parking fees should be strongly considered. Rogers closes by noting that the research was funded by the Ford Motor Company.
He then opens the floor to questions.
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