Climate change has emerged as a key concern for the World Bank and its clients. Naturally reoccurring phenomena such as El Nino affect climate on a global scale destroying livelihoods and hindering sustainable development. On November 18, 2002 the environmental and socio-economic impacts of El Nino were addressed as part of the World Bank’s Climate Change Learning Series. The event featured presentations by researchers form Columbia University’s International Research Institute (IRI) who explained how their forecasting models can anticipate regional impacts of El Nino. Their presentations were followed by comments from World Bank staff engaged in efforts to mitigate adverse weather-related impacts through a combination of emerging science and new policy formulation.
Tony Barnston, Head of Forecast Operations at IRI, provided a regional overview of the climatic impacts of El Nino across the world. In particular, he focused on the El Nino currently forming and how it will affect weather patters in Asia, Latin America, and Africa. He was followed by IRI researcher, Maxx Dilley, who noted that approaches to dealing with El Nino vary, not just according to weather intensity, but also due to political, economic, and other social variables. During his presentation, he described how their modeling can anticipate the social and economic impacts of the emerging El Nino and provide decision makers with appropriate emergency responses and risk management techniques.
IRI research scientist, Madeleine Thomson, provided an in-depth look at the use of seasonal climate forecasts to address the impacts of climate on health issues such as malaria. Fellow research scientist Shiv Someshwar provided an overview of how the modeling can assess the impact on agriculture in Indonesia, and Upmanu Lall described El Nino’s effects on development strategies for water resource management in Brazil.
Afterwards, World Bank Lead Engineer Walter Veragara described current climate change initiatives and trends in Latin America. He was followed by Alcira Kremer and Margaret Arnold of the World Bank’s Disaster Management Facility who commented on the World Bank’s response to climate-related disasters. They also stressed the need for greater prevention efforts and mainstreaming of these measures into country assistance and poverty reduction strategies.
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