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Projections for the OVC Situation
Making reliable projections for OVC populations is difficult, since many of the risks that make children vulnerable are largely unpredictable (conflicts, disease outbreaks, natural disasters, etc.). Reasonably reliable projections only exist for orphaned children because of the attention to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Trends for some other OVC groups can be reasonably expected, but not accurately
quantified.
Orphans
The rate of orphanhood has stagnated in Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole,
and is expected to drop from 12.4 to 12% between 2005 and 2010. In absolute
numbers, however, this represents an increase from 39 to 42 million
children, reflecting the general population growth. The drop in the
orphan rate is due to the fact that non-HIV/AIDS related parental deaths
are currently being curbed, while the AIDS orphan rate will continue
to increase from 5.2 to 5.8%, that is, from 16 to 20 million children.
The rate of double orphans is expected to increase from 2.2 to 2.3%,
representing an increase from 7 to 8 million children.
Currently 76% of double orphans; this figure is expected to increase to 83%
(Children
on the Brink [Heavy!]). Since there are no immediate signs that HIV/AIDS
infections will decrease substantially in the short run, and the absorption
capacity of traditional extended family structures is weakened by urbanization,
labor migration and changing social values, it can be expected
that an increasing number of orphans will find themselves outside of family care or in extended family care of declining
quality.
Street children
According
to the United Nations Center for Human Settlement, the numbers of street children in African urban centers is expected to grow rapidly. Moreover, as street children grow in numbers, their life conditions on the streets are expected to become harsher and increasingly dominated by gangs and violence. In this context, drug problems tend to develop and make rescue and rehabilitation an extremely challenging
task.
Worst forms of child labor
With the growing international attention,
commercial agriculture and other formal-sector businesses are attempting to respect international guidelines on child labor. At the same time, some of the most brutal forms of child exploitation such as sex trafficking appear to be on the increase, often with the involvement of organized crime
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