| Grant Profile: |
| Project Title: |
Policy Research and Dissemination Funding, Post-Conflict Transitions Project |
| PCF/LICUS/SPF: |
PCF |
Status: |
Closed |
| File Number: |
328
| Region: |
Global |
| Sector: |
Multisector |
Country: |
Multi-country |
| FY approved: |
2006 |
Grant Theme : |
Social dev/gender/inclusion |
| Keyword(s): |
Donor harmonization;Social/conflict analysis |
Approved Amount: |
$100,000.00 |
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Grant Recipient:
Post-Conflict Transitions Project, DEC-RG |
Grant Purpose:
This grant will fund the policy analysis and dissemination of the Post-Conflict Transitions (PCT) Project findings in three areas.
The grant will support the writing of a comprehensive policy paper on Post-Conflict Transitions drawing practical lessons from the PCT papers. Second, the grant will fund a policy note to be presented at a project workshop that will describe the operational post-conflict experience, to better inform project researchers on how their research can advise policy. Both the policy paper and policy note will include regional perspectives. A second workshop will include a call for proposals for future case studies that incorporate findings from the PCT project. Finally, the grant will also fund a dissemination conference that will increase the reach and visibility of the PCT project, especially among Regions.
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Grant Activities:
This grant will fund the following components to increase the reach and impact of the research project:
(1) Policy Note – Summary of operational post-conflict experience to be presented at the Oslo Workshop.
(2) Policy Paper – Comprehensive analysis of findings from PCT project, prepared for dissemination conference.
(3) Oslo Workshop – Workshop in Oslo, June 2006, to include PCT researchers and policymakers from various institutions, including but not limited to the World Bank (including Regions), Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD), UNDP and IMF.
(4) Part 2 Workshop – Exploratory workshop in part II country, Fall 2006, to include presentation of preliminary policy paper and a call for proposals for future case studies that incorporate findings from the PCT project.
(5) Dissemination Conference – Conference for release of policy paper and distribution of project research papers. Through involvement of Regions in earlier workshops and in the development of the policy note and paper, Regional buy-in for dissemination activities will be secured.
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Lessons Learned:
Development assistance typically increases after the end of a conflict, marking an immediate spike in humanitarian aid. Usually around five years after the conflict ends, there is a rapid decline in aid, as international attention wanes. Within ten years, forty percent of countries slide back into conflict.
To help countries escape the conflict trap, the development community needs to strengthen its assistance policies through targeted and well-planned research and aid. Countries must receive effective sustained assistance which promotes economic growth and stable government capable of providing essential services. To contribute to these objectives, the World Bank supported the Post-Conflict Transitions Project between 2006 and 2007. The project aimed at advancing understanding of post-conflict development by identifying the obstacles of progress and the conditions under which societies succeed in their development after the end of conflict.
The Post-Conflict Transitions Project was supported by the Post-Conflict Fund and the Knowledge for Change Program at the World Bank. It supported policy research and the dissemination of findings, carried out jointly by the World Bank, the Center for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), and the International Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO). More than twenty-five papers commissioned as a result of the project outline conclusions on the implications of post-conflict transitions. The initiative culminated in a conference, to share findings and recommendations within the World Bank, and among key partners and external stakeholders.
Project findings suggest that conflict is more likely to occur whenever there is high population density, greater distance from the capital city, proximity to international borders, and higher strategic and natural resource value of the location. Civil war is also more likely to develop in low-income areas and in absence of democracy. Conflict is, however, less likely to occur in states with democratic neighbors. This suggests that, as democracy grows in Latin America, the southernmost regions of Sub-Saharan Africa, and Eastern Europe, these regions could become more peaceful.
Findings also suggest that the risk of civil war decreases when institutions are able to enforce the rule of law. Research indicates that to mitigate conflict, the focus should be placed on building or strengthening stable government institutions which provide effective services and reinforce political credibility. However, leaders need resources to demonstrate “quick wins” from peace. This is why strengthening of institutions should go hand in hand with poverty reduction programs.
Peacekeeping has been used to support stability, contain risks, and build trust in the medium term. The impact fades with time, as the cost of maintaining peacekeeping operations is very high. Research findings suggest that long-term peace-building is more dependent on economic development rather than sustained peacekeeping. However, supporting development and security are complementary, the research suggests, and neither can be achieved overnight. What is important, as outlined by findings of the Post-Conflict Transitions Project, is to establish the right macroeconomic agenda when services start falling apart during war.
Findings of the project represent a number of lessons for operations in post-conflict transition periods:
1/ The first priority in promoting development of war-torn and fragile states is the avoidance of further destructive conflict. Fostering economic growth, promoting sustainable democratization and encouraging institutional reform are key components in avoiding conflict. Economic growth can promote civil peace by creating new wealth that can be used on public goods, increasing healthcare, literacy and education, promoting the accumulation of human capital, and thereby increasing the opportunity cost of conflict and decreasing the incentive to rebel. Advances in democratization can increase the effectiveness of governance and increase minority representation in the political system, thereby providing a forum for the legitimate voicing of grievance and decreasing disenfranchisement. Institutional reform can increase government efficiency and transparency in the provision of public goods and provide protections for human and property rights that increase the credibility of states at risk, reducing uncertainty and the accompanying risk of civil war.
2/ Results stress that it is important to focus on market imperfections in post-conflict electoral politics, particularly as it affects policymaking. In identifying the macroeconomic – especially monetary – policy that is found to be most conducive to growth for post-conflict states, research findings suggest that authorities responsible for monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization at the end of conflicts should carefully consider structural changes in money demand, as the latter change significantly at the end of civil war. Often demand for money is weak after conflict, and post-conflict governments lack the resources to engage in robust monetary policy. The research demonstrated that much-needed monetary reconstruction can be achieved through post-conflict aid which encourages growth, reduces inflation, and could prevent further conflict since economic stability can is one component of political stability.
3/ Fragile post-conflict states often fail to deliver public goods, creating environments of insecure property rights manifest in corrupt revenue collection, opaque or non-credible regulation, and systems that exclude key interests or fail to constrain executive power. Some or all of these failures are more likely to occur when party identification follows ethnic/religious/regional lines; when policy preferences sharply diverge; when illiteracy and low human capital discourage political participation and challenge the efficiency of the bureaucratic machinery of the state (undermining public good provision); when easily expropriated natural resources or similar rents are large and/or when traditional and modern bases for legitimate rule are in conflict. This research explores the underlying mechanism of how states fail to perform their functions as providers of public goods and suggests relevant remedies.
4/ Social factors (ethnic fractionalization and polarization) and institutional choices made in democratizing countries (majoritarian vs. consociational systems) often determine the amount of democratization that can be accomplished and can ultimately determine the success of the state. Related to these issues of social organization is the concept of credible government. Credible government (the perception that political competition and political institutions provide assurance that government actions will not swing arbitrarily against any particular group) is a necessary condition for political progress through consensus building.
To access the papers produced by the Post-Conflict Transitions Project, please visit:
http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/EXTPROGRAMS/EXTCONFLICT/0,,contentMDK:21315494~pagePK:64168182~piPK:64168060~theSitePK:477960,00.html
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